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The Houston Texans will try to pull off a huge upset and win their second game of the season when they face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. Houston is on a seven-game losing streak and is coming off a 27-14 loss to Cleveland last week. Dallas has won three straight games, including a 54-19 blowout over Indianapolis its last time out.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Dallas is favored by 17 points in the latest Cowboys vs. Texans odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 44. Before entering any Texans vs. Cowboys picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 156-112 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Why the Cowboys can cover

Dallas has been one of the most dominant teams in the NFL over the past few weeks, beating Minnesota by 37 points and Indianapolis by 35 points. The Cowboys have scored at least 28 points in five consecutive games, making them the perfect team to back as large favorites. They had a season-high 220 rushing yards in last week's win over the Colts, and they will be facing the worst run defense in the NFL on Sunday.

Running back Tony Pollard has already racked up a career-high 852 yards on the ground, becoming the first Dallas player with five touchdowns of 30-plus yards in the same season. Houston has not reached the 20-point mark since Week 7 and has lost four of its last five games by double digits. Dallas is riding a six-game home winning streak and has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games overall.

Why the Texans can cover

Houston might be entering this game with a 1-10-1 record, but only one of those losses came by 17-plus points. The Texans have gone six straight games without losing by that margin, and they are going to have quarterback Davis Mills back on the field for this game. Mills was benched two weeks ago, but he should play better after watching the last two games from the sidelines.

Rookie running back Dameon Pierce has been a bright spot for Houston this season, racking up 861 rushing yards to lead all rookies. He had 73 rushing yards against Cleveland last week and also has 165 receiving yards this year, making him the third rookie in franchise history to crack the 1,000-yard mark. Dallas has important games against Philadelphia and Tennessee looming later this month, so Houston might not command the Cowboys full attention on Sunday.

How to make Texans vs. Cowboys picks

The model has simulated Cowboys vs. Texans 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.